Shrinking forests under warming: evidence of Podocarpus parlatorei (pino del cerro) from the subtropical Andes.

Phylogeography in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a robust tool to analyze hypotheses on range shifts under changing climates particularly of taxa and areas with scant fossil records. We combined phylogeographic analysis and ENM techniques to study the effects of alternate cold and warm (i.e., glacial and interglacial) periods on the subtropical montane cold-tolerant conifer Podocarpus parlatorei from Yungas forests of the central Andes. Twenty-one populations, comprising 208 individuals, were analyzed by sequences of the trnL -trnF cpDNA region, and 78 sites were included in the ENM. Eight haplotypes were detected, most of which were widespread while 3 of them were exclusive of latitudinally marginal areas. Haplotype diversity was mostly even throughout the latitudinal range. Two distribution models based on 8 bioclimatic variables indicate a rather continuous distribution during cooling, while under warming remained within stable, yet increasingly fragmented, areas. Although no major range shifts are expected with warming, long-lasting persistence of cold-hardy taxa inhabiting subtropical mountains may include in situ and ex situ conservation actions particularly toward southern (colder) areas.